Alex Goldman, Amrita Khalid, and Rachael King on the Past, Present, and Future of the Podcast Industry

Jeff Umbro: This is Podcast Perspectives, a show about the latest news in the podcast industry and the people behind it. I'm your host, Jeff Umbro, the founder and CEO of the Podglomerate.

Most weeks on the show we'll do a deep dive into the audio industry by speaking with one person who is making waves, whether they're creating a network, building a product, or helping creators get paid. But for today's episode, I want to zoom out and take stock of the past, present, and future of the podcast industry.

To cover this all, I have a great panel of experts with us today. We have Alex Goldman, formerly a co-host and producer of Gimlet's Reply All. We have Amrita Khalid, head writer of Hot Pod, the largest podcast newsletter brought to you by The Verge. And we have Rachael King, founder and CEO of Pod People, a full service podcast production agency.

Now, let's get to the show.

Thank you everyone for joining us today. This should be a really fun episode. I'm thinking about the podcast industry in three cross sections today: one being the 2010s, so specifically 2014 in the era of Serial, through 2020, which I would call " the era of acquisitions;" and then at some point we're going to get to today; and the future.

Thinking back to early podcasting in 2014, I actually wanted to start with Alex. Podcasting really became the next big thing in media, for whatever reason. A lot of different organizations started to really put more energy, time, resources, money, [and] people behind it. And Alex, your story, hosting Reply All, working at Gimlet, through the transition to Spotify, being in public radio before that, is really a nice indication of that thread.

So I was hoping you could give us a little bit of a background of where you saw yourself in the media, and then specifically how a show like Reply All worked back then, as opposed to like how something like that might work today.

Alex Goldman: I don't know how it would work today, honestly.

Where I saw myself in the media... I don't know... I mean I was a grunt at WNYC that got plucked from obscurity by Alex Blumberg to go and do this thing that like, when they started it, they were like: "We have this amount of runway, we might be broke in six months, we might not..."

We were lucky that our show came out during the original run of Serial and had staying power. That was a very lucky period of time. I've never felt on time to anything before that, and that is the only time that I've ever felt that in my career.

It was also a pretty scrappy operation when we started, there were four of us. At the time it felt [like] we were just like scrappy upstarts.

Jeff Umbro: Do you remember how people thought of podcasting when you were at WNYC?

Alex Goldman: I remember that they thought of it as a loss leader, like an afterthought.

It was - with the exception of Radiolab - very focused on the terrestrial radio side of things. And even though the listenership had already started to decline at that point, it wasn't a situation where people were giving it that kind of thought.

Radiolab was a big podcast hit, and then not long after I left, they had a couple big hits: Two Dope Queens came on pretty big; Death, Sex, and Money was its own thing. But beyond those two things, I still to this day don't know if they've ever gotten it. I don't know if they know what makes a good podcast at WNYC and I say that with no disrespect. I think it's hard to know the answer to that.

But the CEO at the time called us in for a meeting and said, "Hey, would you guys consider staying?" And we were like, “Are you going to give us raises or give us a budget?" And she was like, "No." I was like, "Okay... Then no, we won't consider staying. Sorry."

Jeff Umbro: It's easy to look [with] hindsight and say they had gold that they just gave away. But I'm curious from your point of view: I know Alex Blumberg came to you guys and asked you if you were interested in doing this, but did you say yes because they were going to let you do the thing that you wanted to do? Or did you say yes because you saw podcasting as the future?

Alex Goldman: I didn't think of podcasting as the future necessarily. It was more he was gonna let us make the show we wanted to make, and we got to have Alex Blumberg from This American Life [as our editor] and a giant pool of money. He said for a year, but then he had to make a business, so it ended up being six months.

But still six months of having Alex Blumberg as an editor was very formative and helped me become a better radio producer. So that made it worth it.

Jeff Umbro: And for Amrita: in this window of time [2014-2017] What were you writing about? I don't believe it was audio.

Amrita Khalid: Yeah, I was reporting on the Hill in 2014. It was a different time.

But one thing I will say about that period is that smartphone uptake increased rapidly. People were buying smartphones, could listen to podcasts on the go. And also people were spending more time on apps, on social media in general, on Twitter, Instagram.

We saw this increase of people being extremely online.

When Serial came out, I remember being in the car with my friend and it was just unlike anything I'd ever heard of at that point. It reached us through audio in a way that we hadn't been accustomed to.

But along with being extremely online, I think Reply All found this audience that was very extremely online and managed to give them a podcast that had incredibly timely, like internet reporting as well. I had never seen anything like that before. So that was definitely something that was unique.

Jeff Umbro: Yeah there was a moment where online or techiness kind of became cool. And at least in my experience, everybody started paying attention because they wanted to know what was part of the culture, of the zeitgeist, or whatever you want to call it.

When it comes to podcasting specifically, Amrita, it sounds like you had a couple of touch points with shows that resonated with you. But was there ever a moment where you looked at the industry as a whole and you said, "This is going to be something?"

Amrita Khalid: Oh, definitely. Around 2018 I was still doing some freelancing for The Daily Dot. So the Daily Dot writes about creators, right?

And so there was this kind of shift from around 2018-2019: you saw the lines getting blurred a bit. People who started off as influencers creating YouTube channels, or creating podcasts... we saw entire brands invest in their podcast divisions. And so we saw a lot of new content.

Podcasting as we had known, it had its roots in public radio. Now we saw new people throwing time and money into podcasts.

Jeff Umbro: There was a moment where for me personally, I looked at it and said, "Oh, this is going to be huge." Not because of any knowledge of the business or anything, but because I liked listening to it a lot. And I couldn't stop and I saw a lot of other people in that same boat.

And Rachael, you have a very similar experience to me, where you were in podcasting for fun, and then you turned it into a business. So you started Pod People in 2017, which is in the middle of this window of time. Why did you decide that then was the moment to move ahead and do this?

Rachael King: It's really selfish. I just wanted to.

So I was running a PR firm before this, focused on early stage tech startups with underrepresented founders, and previously had been the head of communications, or worked in content marketing across all different sorts of mediums. I got my career started doing social media for brands because I was doing it for fun, and blogging for fun, and realized that brands were going to need to figure out how to do that in a way that didn't suck. And over the years, [I] just kept doing that in different mediums.

And finally, I had the same moment with Serial: I was making a show for fun with a friend. We'd done a hundred episodes, but it was totally a hobby thing. And finally, after Serial, I went to work at my startup and everyone was talking about it. People who thought I was insane for having a podcast, listening to podcasts, were now like water cooler-ing about the show Serial. And so that to me was the tipping point where I was like, “Okay, this is going to go mainstream, people are going to get on board and therefore brands will have to figure it out.”

And selfishly, audio storytelling is my favorite kind of work to create, to consume - that's how I like to learn, that's how I like to hear stories. And so I forced my way in from startup tech world and tried to find a co-founder who came from the NPR radio world and no one was crazy enough to take that leap of faith with me.

I remember a couple people I talked to said "What's [your] salary?" And I was like, “No, there's no salary. It's whatever we sell through." And I talked to friends who were in the startup space and they all thought I was insane - that the market opportunity wasn't big enough. But I'm glad I didn't care and just decided to do it anyway, because here we are six years later and I don't think anyone could argue with the opportunity at this point, especially through COVID, through the almost recession.

The market has continued to grow in every single way, every single metric.

Jeff Umbro: Prior to 2020, people were calling the audio industry the Wild West - podcasting specifically because nobody really knew what was going to happen, and you had all of these people who were exploring these wild business models.

You had Gimlet, you had The Ringer, you had Wondery, who were taking venture money [and] making these shows that everybody loved, but there wasn't necessarily yet a business model to reflect how it was going to become profitable. Beyond the idea of: we're going to sell a bunch of ads and maybe it'll work.

So fast forward to 2020: all of this got supercharged because of COVID and because of some other like, external factors. We saw a lot shift in that window of time from the previous 10 years, and then over the next three years.

So Amrita, I wanted to ask you: from your vantage point as somebody who has been exploring the industry and really paying attention to the growth, and the consolidation since the growth, what happened to the podcast industry during the pandemic?

Amrita Khalid: The pandemic changed a few things.

First of all, obviously [the pandemic] drove up an increase in podcast listening in the U.S. And globally, more people were at home, more people were listening to podcasts. But another thing it did, it also recruited new casual listeners to the medium. People, again, had more downtime, so they had more time to experience new things.

It also drew more people to creating podcasts, new creators to the scene. For example, Tink was discovered around this time. A lot of people just had time at home and could create stuff. Celebrities, actors, musicians who didn't have a usual outlet anymore, started to go into podcasts.

And then obviously spring of 2020, podcast listening began to creep up, and that momentum kind of stayed consistent throughout 2021. And then we also saw Spotify pledge to spend a billion on podcasts. And so that maintained throughout 2020. We saw them acquire The Ringer, signed a whole bunch of content deals with Kim Kardashian, Meghan Markle and Prince Harry around this year... They acquired Megaphone, I believe in 2020 as well.

And then 2022 is strange in that I feel like it was the first year that people thought, "I'm going to make up for the life that I missed during the pandemic."

And so we thought people [spent] more time outdoors - Netflix lost a record number of subscribers, I believe, in 2022. People were on the other end of the spectrum, just embracing more outdoor activities, going to work... So we saw podcast listenership drop last year.

But what happened this year - this is according to Infinite Dial - we saw podcast listening increase again. So the latest Infinite Dial survey from March: a total of 31 percent of listeners in the US listened to a podcast in the last week, which is the highest it's ever been.

And we're seeing people settle into their new routines. More people are listening again after like, abandoning it maybe last year.

Jeff Umbro: I'm wondering if you have any insight into who are the kinds of people who are making these podcasts in the last few years, and who are the kinds of people who are listening?

Amrita Khalid: It changes a little bit. I feel like it has changed. What we thought of as a podcast has changed.

We're seeing YouTube podcasts have exploded. Gen Z sees YouTube as the primary place to watch podcasts.

But we also saw huge deals, mainly through Spotify, Joe Rogan... We saw this cult of personality surrounding podcasters emerge. I feel, in the past few years, the whole parasocial relationship with podcasters became much more apparent in the past couple years.

Conan O'Brien Needs A Friend came out in 2018. But during the pandemic, a lot of listeners just started really relying on that podcast as a way to keep their spirits up. You saw a lot of people develop relationships like that during the pandemic where they might have one or two favorite podcasts that really helped them get up in the morning and maintain maybe a sense of routine.

Jeff Umbro: At its heart, there was just a huge investment in the podcast industry within this like, window of time, both for companies investing in or acquiring other companies; investing in the space; or giving money to creators, celebrities or otherwise, in order to make new shows.

This is a question for everybody: was that misguided or short-sighted at that time? Alex, for example: Spotify purchased Gimlet. Initially, and since then, I'm definitely curious, did you look at that as a good thing?

Alex Goldman: No. I didn't want to be bought by Spotify.

I didn't want to have anything to do with them. I just wanted to keep making my show. We were successful. We were doing fine.

I think that the problem with this industry, and pretty much every other industry, is if you look at the big successes, it's never a podcast company being like: "Check it out. We have spotted a hole in the market that needs to be filled. So we're going to make this kind of podcast." It's always people who are like: "I have an idea for a thing I want to make" and they get the money to do it and it becomes successful.

Look at that across the entire history of podcasts, big-budget podcasts and small podcasts. It's always been that way. If you look at Gimlet, the successful shows: Mystery Show, Reply All, Heavyweight, Crime Town... all original ideas that came to the company and asked for the money to produce it. All the stuff that they decided to develop in house didn't hit.

It's the same case with everything from the Joe Rogan show to Normal Gossip. Everything that's successful is a person with a passion for something, who then gets the opportunity to make it. And I feel if you dump a bunch of money into something, that doesn't mean it's going to be the next big thing.

In the same way that Netflix had the Duffer Brothers making this passion project: Stranger Things. And I'm not saying that... every show that is not a hit on Netflix is bad, but they threw so much money at so many people, trying to fill so many niches, and very few of them have been successful.

It's because people were passionate about the things they were making. And I think that's true across everything. No matter how much money you throw at something, unless people are super passionate about it, it is not sustainable. Even the Marvel Cinematic Universe is on its knees right now, because it is an assembly line. It's not something that someone is making because they have a vision.

Jeff Umbro: Rachael, I don't know if you want to provide a counterpoint to that, but my question for you specifically is that: at Pod People, you guys, in addition to many other things, create branded shows for folks who are trying to find their little niche in the market.

Obviously you believe in that idea. And we can bring a lot of value to listeners through creating something that may be a little bit more commercial than a passion project for someone. Is there an argument to be made that helps to sustain the industry just by providing more jobs and opportunity for people?

Rachael King: Yeah, especially in the last year or two you can see even more clearly how every piece of the industry has to play together and everything has to be diversified, right?

Even in the last two years, I've seen so many production companies - ones that I really respect - who were traditionally doing original content, limited series narrative, with the bet that they were going to be able to adapt it into TV and film, now shopping their services on the branded side, which is interesting, right? I'm like, "Yeah, it's not so bad over here."

Or even just diversifying from straight up ad revenue to subscriptions or doing more focus on community building and making sure that you have that engaged few thousand fans as opposed to going really wide. And I think that's all good. I think everyone should be diversifying to make this industry super healthy.

Jeff Umbro: This question is for Amrita, but anybody can answer: are we in a bubble?

Amrita Khalid: No... I think if anything, the bubble’s burst, right?

I think what we are seeing is, just by necessity [as] the big players [aren't] securing as many creators, more people are going independent. [They're] looking at Patreon, and other ways like subscription-based models to make money. Other creators might just see it as a way to reach even more of their audience.

And so by necessity of the way the market is right now, a lot of people are just seeing podcasts not just strictly as a way to make money, but as another way to expand their reach. A podcast is just one of several ways to get your ideas out there for a large subsection of creators.

Rachael King: Yeah, I think we're through whatever... I don't know that I'd even call it a bubble.

I think some dumb money got poured into the industry and then there was a correction and now we're through it, or almost through it, which is great.

Jeff Umbro: Alex, you have written pretty openly on your Substack about how your personal trajectory and career trajectory reflects a lot of the broader trends in the industry.

Do you feel that people have the ability today to make a living in podcasting?

Alex Goldman: Yeah, I think that people have the ability to make a living, but I think it's probably on the order of the number of people who can make a living from TikTok or YouTube. It's vanishingly small.

Rachael King: Or books.

Alex Goldman: Or movies, or acting... basically anything creative.

I think that there is a long tail of people who can make a couple bucks doing it here and there, but I think that for the most part [it’s] actually really difficult.

And again, I think that everybody is right. We're on the other side of a bubble bursting. We saw tons of layoffs this year. Especially in the narrative podcast realm where I come from. And I think we are starting to see people's appetites come back a little bit, but this year has been really grim. Everybody I know lost their jobs in July. Gimlet shut down. It's gone. And maybe five out of the 120 people I knew who had jobs at Gimlet still have jobs.

But like any industry, there're ebbs and flows... And we are definitely in, or just over, the hump of an ebb.

It's a hard time to make a living in it partially because the money's not there and partially because of the incredible volume of podcasts out there right now. And the fact that no podcast app has ever managed to crack the discoverability components of podcasts. No one has ever been able to do a fantastic job of making it possible to find the podcasts that would be the ones you want.

Amrita Khalid: I also think, to your point about podcasts becoming so saturated, listeners are a little bit less loyal now too.

If you go on Reddit, a lot of times people will be like, "So what's a podcast that's like Crime Junkie," or "I'm sick of X podcast," [or] "Can people recommend some podcasts that are a lot like x podcast was, during the first season."

So it's like people don't necessarily need to stick with one podcast for the long haul anymore because there are so many options.

Jeff Umbro: I agree with everything that all of you said. And Alex, I'm sorry. I just wanted to say [I] hope you and all of your people are also doing okay.

But to your point, Alex, I think that there's never going to be enough real estate to really highlight every show that deserves to be highlighted.

So we'll call that phase two of podcasting. And now I want to look a little bit towards the future. So we have just come out of this amazing boom-bust period, ebb and flow. And all of the indicators that I'm seeing are showing that we're probably going to continue that upward trajectory again in the industry as a whole.

One of the questions that I have, and this is for Amrita, but again, anybody can answer: do you feel that the industry as a whole is a little bit stagnant right now? Are we lacking some of the innovation that we've seen in the last decade?

Amrita Khalid: I felt like that sentiment was apparent during Podcast Movement.

More than a couple of people I spoke to - one who had been going to Podcast Movement since 2016 - noted that this year felt stagnant. No real disruptors, no real information... And I think this year has been tough, because the lack of any outside disruptors has made it seem like it is more stagnant.

But I also think that this has been a catch up year, as far as people returning to their normal listening habits. Obviously there won't be as much VC money, but that can actually normalize things a bit. I think it's tough to use this year as a measuring point, again, because I do think the future is going to look very different.

Jeff Umbro: One kind of aside, Amrita, as well: when Ariel comes back to Hot Pod, are you going to continue to write about the audio industry?

Amrita Khalid: I'm going to try to. I'm not actually quite sure.

I [have] loved covering the podcast industry. It's been so unique in so many ways because it's so small, and so passionate, and there are so many stories that I feel don't get covered because there are so few reporters focusing on it full time. So I'd love to continue to keep covering it. It's been really intriguing for me.

Jeff Umbro: Love it.

Rachael, what are you planning for Pod People's strategy moving forward? Is it going to be more of the same or are you planning on shifting at all based on where the industry has gone for your particular kind of work?

Rachael King: We are planning on slow, steady, responsible growth, which is boring and probably not sexy, but even this year we've managed to grow 40 percent just plugging away.

A lot of that is new tangential services that we started last year and are now ramping up: we do a lot more social content production than we used to related to [podcasts]. Obviously clipping out the show, but also originals, which has been super fun and so effective for making sure that the show goes far and wide and gets all kinds of eyes and ears.

Now I feel like we know what we're really good at. We have the right team. And so just growing responsibly, I think, is the key word for the year. Everyone's got to figure out their business model and then stick with it.

I do think that we'll start to see... not dumb money, but investment come back next year. I agree that like, this year is the year of right sizing, of figuring out “What does sustainability look like?” And then I think we'll see some more Luminary-type schemes coming back in next year. Not necessarily the same thing, but like an outsider funded by VC who thinks that they can completely change the game in terms of discovery, or in terms of building the Netflix or HBO for podcasts. And I'd love to see it. Why not?

I think there's still lots of opportunities to shake things up if it's done in a more strategic way.

Jeff Umbro: And I have to ask as well, because you're the perfect sized company for the conversation of podcast roll ups and mergers: do you think that we're going to see more of that in the future? Or do you think that's behind us at this point? That being the idea of combining smaller companies to make a greater whole.

Rachael King: I think we're going to see a few more fire sales and mergers out of necessity in the next couple months. And then I do think next year we'll start to see some more strategic...

Chris Peterson over at DWNLOAD Media - that was really exciting to see and he's awesome. So I can't wait to see what they do because he is someone who comes from this world who actually understands how you should deploy capital.

And so I'm excited to see people from the industry, hopefully, who've made their nut in one way or another, invest it back in, instead of outsiders coming in who are just trying to make podcasting look like TV and film. And that didn't work, right?

So I think that we're going to see a couple more consolidations out of necessity. And then I think next year we'll start to see some more interesting things, injections of cash or new companies that know what they're doing, which would be really cool.

Jeff Umbro: Alex, you wrote in your Substack that you see two ways forward for yourself as a producer and creator: it's either creating an always-on show and finding someone to partner with to help produce that and pay for it, or crowdfunding your next initiative.

A, do you have a preference, and B, do you still feel that way?

Alex Goldman: From all the conversations I've had, [those're] the options. And if I'm honest, the thing that you have to take as a huge grain of salt is like, of the people on this call, I am truly the stupidest when it comes to business. I don't know anything about business and I don't want to. I don't. I truly don't like it. I don't understand it. I just want to make a podcast.

And I was very lucky that I made one that was successful and would like to try and parlay that into making another one that's successful. And I have incredible respect for everyone on this call and their abilities to make things happen in a way that I absolutely can't.

My dream would be to be able to not have to do an always-on show, but also have someone work with me and handle the financial aspects of it. But the idea of having to manage the financial aspects of it on my own is a lot scarier to me than just having to be always-on, having to make more stuff.

But the idea of crowdfunding - and I have thought about it - because I do think that there's like, a lot to be said for places like Defector, or even people who are just doing Patreon who like, are fully self-funded, and are like, really doing it for themselves. And there's no push for like, infinite growth, etc. I really like the idea of growing slowly and deliberately because, yes, it might be a little boring, but like it's smart.

But, I can't do that myself. I'm not smart enough. I don't have the patience or the organizational skills. If I actually panned this camera around this room, you would see what a complete mess it is, and it would give you a clue as to what goes on inside my head. That's just not possible for me.

So I think the plan is still to try and partner with someone to make something that's probably always-on.

Jeff Umbro: Thank you again to all of our guests for joining us today.

You can find Alex Goldman, of course, on Reply All in their catalog episodes, or on Twitter at Alex Goldmund, G O L D M U N D.

You can find Amrita Khalid at theverge.com or the Hot Pod newsletter.

And you can find Rachael King by Googling Pod People or by checking them on all the social medias.

Have questions, tips, or podcast recommendations? You can follow me on all of the socials at Jeff Umbro. Podcast perspectives is a production of the Podglomerate. If you're looking for help producing, distributing, or monetizing your podcast, you can find us at podglomerate.com, shoot us an email at listen@thepodglomerate.com, or follow us on all social platforms @podglomerate.

Thank you to Chris Boniello, Henry Lavoie, and Jordan Aaron for producing this show. Thank you for listening, and I will catch you next week.